China: Industrial profits flat in September while revenue edged down sequentially; October PMIs preview

China's industrial profits increased by 14.1% yoy and revenue rose by 6.6% yoy in September (vs. +4.9% yoy and +7.4% yoy respectively in August). In seasonally adjusted sequential terms, industrial profits remained roughly unchanged (vs. +0.6% in August) and revenue ticked down 0.1% sa non-annualized (vs. +0.9% in August). Downstream profits rose 4.4% yoy in September, accelerating from 0.5% yoy in August, while upstream profit growth rose to 38.4% yoy from 19.8%, mainly from non-ferrous metal smelting and pressing and coal mining and dressing. The NBS noted that the electronics sector contributed 9.6pp to the 15.5% industrial profit growth in Jan-September, followed by raw materials manufacturing at 5.9pp. Overall profit margins ticked up in September on a 12-month average basis, led by improving upstream margins. The note also presents October PMI forecasts: NBS manufacturing PMI to fall to 49.7 from 50.1, RatingDog manufacturing PMI to 51.7 from 52.1, NBS non-manufacturing PMI to 49