China Steel - Channel checker: 10-day China steel output +3% vs previous, but -3% YoY; iron ore miners drift to mark-to-market earnings downgrades

Latest China daily crude steel output for the 10 days to 10 October is tracking at an annualised run rate of 887Mt, +3% versus the previous 10 days but -3% YoY. Trailing 30-day steel production is -1% versus the prior 30-day period and -3% YoY. Driven by seasonally weak Chinese demand, iron ore remained at its YTD low of ~$90-91/t. Australia-China freight fell to $14.25/t and Brazil-China freight declined $4/t to $33.3/t; Australia FOB iron ore is $76/t (-15% YTD) and Brazil FOB is $57/t. In the Q3 EMEA Miners preview, J.P. Morgan noted that with iron ore at ~$90/t, BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Kumba face mark-to-market downgrades to 2027 consensus EBITDA. The analysts remain Neutral on BHP and Rio Tinto London listings, upgraded Anglo American to Neutral and Kumba to Overweight on valuation after a 65% share price decline since Q4'23, and upgraded Glencore to Overweight on higher coal prices and more credible near-term copper growth.