European Luxury Goods & Specialty Retail: The Luxury Data Handbook: September '26

The data available so far on Q3 suggest a sequential deceleration driven by 1/ the US (August saw decelerating Barclaycard data, slower tourism into Europe and weak Swiss watch export data), 2/ China (in line with recent channel checks), and 3/ Korea (deceleration in Korean luxury spending in department stores). 2Q26 saw 6% sector growth, driven by the Americas, with Richemont, Hermes and Prada outperforming. In order to meet FY26 Bloomberg consensus of 5.2% organic growth for the sector, H2 would need to show a c.100bp acceleration vs H1, while Barclays expects roughly flat h/h growth; the team is below consensus on most stocks but ahead on Richemont, Moncler and Burberry. Gucci continued to cut prices into August/September, revealing the global nature of these price cuts, while jewellery brands have raised prices faster than soft luxury peers.