Ryanair (RYA.I): Checking-in for Q2 earnings

We provide a preview ahead of Q2 earnings (Mon, 2nd November). We forecast Q2 net income at €1.57bn (vs. last year €1.72bn) which is broadly in-line with Bloomberg consensus. Q2 net income will be impacted by higher costs, especially fuel, which we don't expect to be covered by any increase in unit revenues. We forecast fares per pax -1% versus prior year, slightly better than the company's previous messaging of c-2%, with ancillaries +1%, and ex-fuel costs +4%. At the sell-side dinner in late September, Ryanair reported a pricing uptick in recent weeks with strong close-in demand, and a clear improvement in bookings sentiment versus a few months prior. We expect this to have continued through the end of September, and we forecast Q3 fares +2%. Despite better pricing trends, the key question mark through winter and into 2027 is whether pricing will be strong enough to fully (or at least partially) offset higher fuel costs, with jet fuel prices up >65% since July. We make no changes to