Metal & Rock: Can Scrap Fill The Gap?

Scrap has moved into focus in metals markets this year: China's tighter VAT rules have constrained copper scrap availability and supported refined demand, while in the US, higher scrap use has helped cushion the impact of 50% aluminium import tariffs. With copper mine supply struggling and aluminium smelters competing with data centres for power, our balances require (and assume) faster scrap growth. However, availability, quality, processing capacity and restrictive trade policies may limit how much can be mobilised and risk tighter balances if not delivered. Copper: More scrap, but still a deficit: Scrap now accounts for ~35% of copper supply, up from 30% in 2020 but below the 2012 peak of ~40%. Recent growth has come mainly through secondary smelting rather than direct use in semi-fabrication. From here, we assume over 3 Mt of additional scrap supply by 2032 with a growing focus on circularity and copper's flexibility to absorb scrap in different parts of the supply chain, yet the m