Lithium Expert Call Key Takeaways

We held a call with Mr. Alfred Hu, an analyst at ZE Consulting. The MoM decline of planned production of batteries and materials in November, albeit mild, is weaker than seasonality, which may indicate a bearish demand outlook in the next year as the supply chain shifts from tight delivery capacity to insufficient order intake. ESS battery demand is expected to grow 20-30% YoY in 2027, including ~50% from overseas market and 10-20% from domestic demand; EV battery (passenger vehicle) demand could rise c.5% YoY, supported by higher battery size per vehicle, with electric commercial vehicles adding some growth. Sodium batteries are ~2x the price of lithium batteries at current lithium prices and not cost competitive, though some demonstration projects might be carried out in 2027. The Jianxiawo lithium mine ramp-up is progressing faster than market expectations, with utilization of 60-70% in November and 80%+ in December; 2027 supply estimates assume 80kt LCE and production could remain