Memory Market Update: HBM S-D update; pricing tailwind and 63% 2026E-28E demand CAGR even after the de-spec

This J.P. Morgan Asia Tech report revises the HBM industry model. Three-year rolling accumulated HBM bit demand is largely unchanged at ~163bn Gb, with 2026E-27E tighter and 2028E less tight; HBM S-D shortage continues through the forecast period, improving slightly from -20% in 2026E to -16% in 2028E. Reflecting the worsening accumulated S-D (over four months of shortage vs. procurement demand), we revise up the pricing forecast and overall HBM TAM (US$160bn-282bn for CY27E-28E, representing 18-24% of the three global memory makers' overall DRAM revenue). We pencil in a 54%/25% blended HBM ASP increase for 2026E/27E and expect HBM industry TAM to rise to US$282bn by CY28, putting HBM back to one-quarter of total DRAM TAM (from 24% in 2025). Multi-tiering SKUs extend 8Hi product shelf life, while 16Hi adoption is pushed back to 2029E at the earliest, making TCB the mainstream back-end packaging solution. SEC and MU's combined revenue share could rise close to 54% this year and ~59% nex