Live Nation: Investor Day & Q3 Preview - Our map of the next wave of venue & touring growth

Ahead of Live Nation Entertainment's (LYV.US) 3Q26 results and November 10th capital markets day, Bernstein maps the full 2026-2030 Venue Nation development pipeline against last year's trajectory (including recent acquisitions such as Paris La Defense Arena) and confirmed 2H26 & 2027 tour dates. Owned & operated capacity remains the multi-year earnings engine, with international arenas as the primary growth driver. The likely venue opening slate sets up 2027 as a capital delivery year & AOI inflection followed by a FCF inflection in 2028. Estimated AOI contributions from FY25 & FY26 venues ramp from ~$115M this year to ~$265M next year, with accrual capex peaking at ~$1.15B next year, setting up FCF conversion toward ~60% in 2028. Announced tour dates continue to imply strong Q3 Concerts results;