What to Know: 3Q Follow-Up with UNH Management

This morning, UNH reported adj. EPS ahead of expectations and increased 2026 adj. EPS guidance, clearing the bar set in investor discussions and reinforcing the multi-year earnings repricing opportunity. While we viewed the results in the quarter as positive, we believe the 2027 commentary was equally (if not more) important. Management framed the low end of the +13% to +16% long-term growth range as a reasonable starting point for 2027, implying 2027 adj. EPS of at least ~$23.17, which sits ~3%-4% above JPMe/consensus of $22.29/$22.55 but below investor expectations of $24-$25. UHC and OptumHealth both beat consensus, with positive margin revisions to Medicaid and Medicare. In MA, management now expects 2026 margins near the top end of the 2%-4% target range, with MA trend running in the 8%-9% range. BY28 Star ratings should place ~75% of enrollment in 4+ Star plans, better than our initial estimate. Medicaid trend is moderating slightly, with 2026 viewed as the trough year and 2027 m