Apollo Global Management Inc (APO.N): Origination Flywheel Underpins 2027 Growth; Reiterate OW

M Idea: Reiterate OW on APO. Mgmt reiterated its 2026 targets for 20%+ FRE growth and 10% SRE growth and gave a first look at 2027 that extends that trajectory, with 20%+ FRE growth, 15%+ management fee growth and 10% SRE growth. We sit above the Street on 2027, with our EPS of $11.00 ~4% above consensus of $10.61, driven by higher ACS fees, fee-related performance fees and realized performance fees. The 3Q miss came from a higher cost of funds at Athene and a higher tax rate, while FRE beat on record ACS fees. We see record origination of $114b, a growing ACS fee stream and APO's positioning for broader structural trends as more important to the earnings trajectory than one quarter of softer SRE. We see APO well positioned to capitalize on secular mega trends, including rising private market allocations from wealth and insurance channels, and accelerating investments globally across energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, defense and AI driving substantial demand for private capital. A