How Much More Can China's Exports Grow?

China's export rise is historically exceptional: its share of global nominal goods exports increased from 4% to 15% between 2000 and 2025, surpassing the peaks of Germany in the 1970s and Japan in the 1980s. With import volumes unlikely to rise significantly given the pursuit of self-reliance, China's trade surplus continues to reach new highs, raising the question of how much further Chinese exports can expand. Unlike "China Shock 1.0" in 2001-07, the current export boom coincides with stagnating or falling profitability, a sign of supply-driven export strength. The absorption capacity of China's trading partners appears to be shrinking somewhat, and their bilateral trade deficits with China have deteriorated notably. An offsetting factor is that China's trading partners may buy less from elsewhere when buying more from China;