How Much More Can China’s Exports Grow?

China's export rise is historically exceptional. From 2000 to 2025, China's share of global nominal goods exports increased from 4% to 15%, surpassing the peaks of Germany in the 1970s and Japan in the 1980s. With import volumes unlikely to rise significantly given the pursuit of "self-reliance", China's trade surplus continues to reach new highs, raising the question of how much further Chinese exports can expand. Unlike "China Shock 1.0" in 2001-07, when export growth coincided with overall industrial profit growth, the current export boom coincides with stagnating or falling profitability, a sign of supply-driven export strength. The absorption capacity of China's trading partners appears to be shrinking somewhat. One offsetting factor is that China's trading partners may buy less from elsewhere when buying more from China;