Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU): Proposed Acquisition of Emaar Dev Confirmed at AED 15 a Share

Emaar Properties' board approved the submission of an offer to acquire the remaining ~20% share of Emaar Development that it and its indirect wholly owned subsidiary do not currently own in an all-cash deal at AED 15 a share, representing a +24% premium to the unaffected stock price at Oct-30. The offer implies ~AED 11.9bn ($3.2bn). Scenario analysis implied c.11% EPS accretion, with the proposed deal delivering c.10-11% EPS accretion on our estimates. Emaar Properties' 9/30/26 results show sufficient liquidity to fund the deal alongside 2026 dividend commitments with existing resources. Strategically, fully consolidating Emaar Development would allow the group to allocate capital, including land bank, funding and development cash flows, under a single framework; fully integrate the development platform with the group's recurring income businesses; and remove the duplicated costs and governance requirements of maintaining a separate listing. The key question from here will be dividend