Americas Entertainment: Toys Earnings Preview: Key themes and expectations heading into 3Q26 results for HAS, MAT & FNKO

Within this report, we highlight key themes and our expectations heading into 3Q26 earnings for our Toys coverage, including Mattel (MAT), Hasbro (HAS), and Funko (FNKO). Hasbro (HAS, Buy): We modestly lower our outlook for 2026+ Revenue (by ~0-1%) and Adjusted EBITDA (~1-2%) heading into 3Q26E results in October, primarily reflecting a tempered outlook for the Consumer Products segment and a shift in retail ordering patterns from 3Q26 to 4Q26. In the WOTC segment, we maintain our outlook for Revenue growth (+9% YoY in 3Q26 and +13% YoY for 2026) driven by strong performance from Marvel and Hobbit, and move the launch of Exodus to 2Q27 now that the game has been announced for April 7. On net, our outlook for 3Q26E Revenue/AOP is ~1%/~3% below consensus. We maintain our Buy rating but lower our 12-month target price to $115 (prior $117). Mattel (MAT, Sell): We modestly lower our estimates for 2026+ Revenue (by ~1%), Gross Profit (by ~1%) and AOI (by ~1%) to reflect increasing macro pres