美银证券举办中国消费虚拟调研，围绕奢侈品、美妆及运动用品与中国企业及专家交流。鉴于市场暂无明显复苏迹象，下调2026年下半年及2027年中国奢侈品需求预测，现预计2027年全球奢侈品收入按固定汇率增长4%（软奢3%、硬奢6%）。中国消费者占奢侈品行业收入29%，其支出2024年持平、2025年下降6%、2026年上半年增长1%；夏季（尤其7月至8月初）因天气扰动、税政变化及高基数走弱，8月下旬至9月初有所改善，行业零售、珠宝及澳门博彩数据同样偏弱。硬奢（腕表珠宝）表现优于软奢，香港优于内地。预计2027年中国奢侈品需求按固定汇率仅增长1%，缺乏V型或U型复苏的明确迹象。运动服饰仍未见回暖，新品带动有限。基于盈利预测调整，下调Brunello Cucinelli目标价至95欧元（原100欧元）、Prada至43港元（原44港元）。
We hosted a virtual fieldtrip focused on Chinese consumption of Luxury, Beauty and Sporting Goods with local companies and experts. Alongside this note, we lower our numbers for Chinese luxury demand in 2H26 and 2027 given limited evidence of green shoots. We now forecast global luxury growth of 4% cFX in 2027 (3% for soft luxury and 6% for hard luxury). The Chinese consumer represents 29% of luxury sector revenue; we estimate Chinese spend was flat in 2024, -6% in 2025 and +1% in 1H26. Summer trends deteriorated, particularly in July and early August, but there was some recovery in late August and early September. Hard luxury (watches and jewellery) outperforms soft luxury, and Hong Kong has outperformed Mainland China. We now expect Chinese luxury demand +1% cFX in 2027, with limited green shoots for a V or U shaped recovery. Chinese sports demand also remains challenged with no green shoots. We lower our Price Objectives for Brunello Cucinelli (to €95 from €100) and Prada (to HK$43