2026 Global eCommerce Handbook: Assessing the Industry in an Increasingly Agentic World

Goldman Sachs introduces the fourth edition of the Global eCommerce Handbook, analyzing key trends and debates impacting eCommerce worldwide. Global eCommerce sales are expected to grow to $6.4tn in 2031 from $4.9tn in 2026, a ~6% CAGR with modest online penetration gains; China/US grow at +4%/+5% CAGR and account for over 50% of global growth, while India and LatAm grow fastest at 18%/13% CAGR. Mature eCommerce players have evolved into consumer ecosystems, with revenue increasingly driven by high-margin ancillary streams such as advertising, subscriptions and logistics. Agentic commerce remains in the early innings, expected to evolve on 3P LLMs and on-platform agentic tools, with low but high-intent consumer adoption. The report maintains a preference for scale and expects further market share consolidation, with regional top picks AMZN, JD, ZAL, MELI, CPNG and Zomato.