美银证券上周举办中国奢侈品、美妆及运动服饰消费线上调研，与东方表行、英皇钟表珠宝、周生生、九龙仓置业、香港置地、安踏等企业以及美妆、运动行业专家交流。中国消费者占全球奢侈品行业收入的29%：2024年消费基本持平，2025年下滑6%，2026年上半年增长1%。夏季趋势恶化，7月及8月初受天气扰动、税收政策变化和高基数影响走弱，8月下旬至9月初略有改善。品类上硬奢（腕表与珠宝，尤其国际品牌）优于软奢，品牌间分化明显；区域上香港优于内地，年初至今访客量同比+11%。鉴于消费整体疲弱、地产与股市未见财富效应，叠加财政收紧影响高净值人群情绪，报告认为难现V型或U型复苏，下调2026年下半年及2027年中国奢侈品需求预测，预计2027年全球奢侈品收入固定汇率增长4%（软奢3%、硬奢6%），中国奢侈品需求固定汇率增长1%。运动服饰仍无复苏迹象。
Last week we hosted a virtual fieldtrip focused on Chinese consumption of Luxury, Beauty and Sporting Goods with local companies and experts. Alongside this note, we lower our numbers for Chinese luxury demand in 2H26 and 2027 given limited evidence of green shoots in the market for now. We now forecast global luxury growth of 4% cFX in 2027 (3% for soft luxury and 6% for hard luxury). The Chinese consumer represents 29% of luxury sector revenue; we estimate Chinese spend was flat in 2024, -6% in 2025 and +1% in 1H26. Summer trends deteriorated, particularly in July and the start of August, with traffic negatively impacted by weather disruption, tax policy changes and a tougher comp, though there was some recovery in the second half of August and start of September. Hard luxury (watches & jewellery, particularly international brands) outperforms soft luxury (highly polarised by brand), and HK has outperformed Mainland China with strong visitations (+11% YTD). Industry data has been mut