摩根士丹利发布欧洲奢侈品行业报告《奢侈品的新算法？》，探讨行业"新"中期增速之争。报告认为，在宏观走弱、奢侈品消化周期因结构性逆风而延长的背景下，未来12个月行业估值缺乏扩张空间。支撑奢侈品历史溢价的核心支柱（强势定价权、中国及奢侈品大众化带来的结构性增长、利润率扩张、低盈利波动）正被削弱或趋于正常化，二手奢侈品被广泛接受、奢侈品疲劳、消费向健康与长寿迁移成为新增结构性逆风。报告预计明年中国客群奢侈品消费最好为低个位数增长，美国约为+5%，因此将LVMH时装皮具部门2027年有机销售增速预测下调至+3%（市场一致预期+4.6%），2028/2029年预测亦低于市场预期（+5% vs +5.5%/+5.9%）。投资上，看好受益于AI财富创造的K型受益标的，给予法拉利、历峰集团、Brunello Cucinelli增持评级，并自年初起对三大法国奢侈品龙头保持观望。
With a softening macro backdrop and the luxury digestion cycle lasting longer given apparent structural headwinds facing the sector, we see little scope for multiple expansion over the next 12 months as things stand. The historical pillars underpinning luxury's premium are being challenged or increasingly normalizing — strong pricing power, powerful structural growth tailwinds (China and democratization of luxury), expanding margins and low perceived earnings volatility. Growth is slower, pricing power has been pushed to its limits, cyclicality has been underestimated, and incremental TAM expansion appears less compelling than during the 2009–2019 cycle. The rise and acceptance of the second-hand luxury market, luxury fatigue, and the spending shift toward wellness and longevity represent emerging structural headwinds largely absent in prior slowdowns. We expect the Chinese cluster's luxury spend could be +LSD% at best next year and US spend perhaps +5% at best, and now model LVMH's F&