瑞银发布美国经济展望，认为本轮经济扩张几乎完全依赖人工智能：2022—2024年靠强力财政支持形成的韧性，已让位于AI/科技资本开支及其创造的财富效应，推动消费增速持续快于收入。但经济其余部分并不强劲，油价上涨进一步推高通胀、偏离FOMC目标，主席沃什在杰克逊霍尔的讲话立场明显偏鹰，预计9月和12月FOMC会议各加息25个基点；OBBBA财政支持已见顶，2027年财政转向拖累，与货币政策同向收紧。微观层面，除AI/科技外，住宅投资、非住宅建筑投资已连续两年收缩，设备投资剔除AI后下降，房地产市场承压、家庭流动性资产分化。预测2026—2028年实际GDP增速分别为2.2%、1.9%、2.6%，失业率4.2%、4.5%、4.4%，PCE通胀3.6%、2.0%、1.9%，核心PCE通胀3.1%、2.4%、2.1%，联邦基金利率4.1%、3.9%、3.4%。
The expansion rests on AI: the economy's resilience in 2022 through 2024, insulated by strong fiscal support, has given way to relentless AI/Tech capex and the wealth it has created, keeping spending growing faster than income. The rest of the economy does not look that strong. The rise in oil prices added another shock pushing inflation away from the FOMC's target, and Chairman Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was unabashedly hawkish; we expect monetary policy to tighten with 0.25 pp rate hikes at the September and December FOMC meetings. OBBBA fiscal support is peaking, and fiscal policy flips to a drag in 2027, working in the same direction as monetary policy. Structures and residential investment fell over the last four quarters, government spending has flatlined, and equity market wealth represents essentially all the increase in real wealth and hit an all-time high share of household net worth of 38% in Q2. We expect AI to drive a regime shift to higher structural productivity growth,