印度经济：财政更新——逆风持续，但赤字目标仍可实现

We review 1HFY27 fiscal trends. On revenues, performance is mixed: divestment receipts are on track to meet annual targets for the first time in eight years, and GST collections remain resilient driven by strong GST on imports (+27%YY). This is offset by shortfall due to fuel excise duty cuts (INR 1.5-1.7trn annualized) and subdued personal income tax growth (+6.7% YoY). On expenditure, central capex spending remains healthy (+11% YoY; +14% ex-one-offs), frontloaded in railways and state loans, whereas major subsidies are under pressure from fertilizer slippages (INR 500-600bn) and rising LPG under-recoveries. Consequently, we estimate a net fiscal risk of INR 1.0trn (0.25% of GDP) but we think govt might have space to rationalize expenditure and maintain the 4.3% of GDP deficit target. Even in case of some slippage, we don't expect excess GSec supply due to strong small savings collections and excess cash surplus.