中期选举、人工智能、石油和美元

This FX & EM Weekly Thoughts argues that midterm election risks to the AI trade and the dollar emanate more from key regional contests, such as Texas, than from a Blue sweep, given that a Democratic sweep is already a strong baseline in betting markets. The dollar has generally tended to underperform mildly ahead of past elections but subsequently stabilize as policy-discontinuity risks faded. This time, discontinuity risks relate mainly to AI, as heavier AI-related regulation could dent AI capex and US growth outperformance. The evolution of the Middle East conflict is a double-edged sword for the dollar, and the recent rise in oil prices likely already reflects expectations of an Iran escalation;