亚洲经济与策略日报

This daily reviews EM Asia macro and strategy. The US-led AI capex boom is widening growth differentiation across EMs, with upward forecast revisions for Israel, Taiwan, Vietnam, Korea and Mexico even as tech-cycle momentum moderates, while most non-AI EMs face tighter funding without commensurate AI-related demand; China's investment/production-biased policies add pressure on traditional manufacturing. Robust 3Q26 earnings and 2027-28 LTA guidance from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reinforce Citi's forecasts of chip-led expansion with monetary tightening, trickle-down effects with expansionary fiscal policy, and KRW appreciation; October goods surplus reached US$42.5bn, with USDKRW seen at 1300 in 0-3M and 1270 in 6-12M, and upside factors building for a sovereign rating upgrade. China's October manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 and non-manufacturing PMI slipped below 50;