US Economic Weekly: Sep jobs preview: Don't fall for the headline

In this US Economic Weekly, we expect payrolls to rise by a below-consensus 60k in September (private: 50k), down from 162k in August, but we view the weakness as largely driven by payback from August's unusually favorable seasonal factors. Underlying job growth is resilient at 100k+, supported by benign claims data, improving ADP readings and robust labor market indicators. We expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1% as the LFPR holds steady at 61.6%, though payback for the 569k jump in household employment in August could push it up to 4.2%. TPS visa revocations for Haitian nationals could be a mild headwind to September payrolls and labor force participation, likely playing out gradually rather than as a one-time shock. Average weekly hours should stay at 34.4 and average hourly earnings at 0.3% m/m;