本报告为高盛GOAL资产配置定位系列报告，聚焦全球跨资产仓位与资金流向的最新变化。核心结论是市场情绪与仓位指标进一步走弱，降至今年四月以来最低水平，与依然强劲的全球综合PMI出现背离；风险偏好指标大幅转负，黄金、日元等传统避险资产的配置增加，股票波动率温和上升但仍低于债券波动率，系统性投资者（CTA、风险平价）的仓位呈避险倾向。AAII投资者调查显示信心水平高于年内中位数但多空分歧加大，历史上高信心读数之后的回报波动往往更大。资金流向上，固定收益是最清晰的去处，债券基金流入持续超过股票基金，以短期政府债和通胀保值债券为主；股票内部亦出现防御性轮动，电信、公用事业与基础设施获资金流入，金融与工业流出最多。利率仓位依然偏空但程度减轻，资产管理人进一步减持长期美债期货。整体看，跨资产仓位已转向更防御的姿态。
This GOAL Positioning report reviews the latest shifts in global cross-asset positioning and fund flows. Our sentiment and positioning indicator turned more negative and fell to its lowest level since April, decoupled from continued strong Global PMIs; the Risk Appetite Indicator dropped sharply below zero, with increased allocation to traditional safe havens such as gold and JPY and a modest rise in equity volatility that remains below bond volatility. Systematic investors, including CTAs and risk parity, are positioned for risk-off, while the AAII survey points to high conviction but a more balanced split between bulls and bears. Fixed income remains the clearest destination for flows, with bond funds outpacing equity funds, led by short-term government and inflation-protected bonds. Within equities, flows rotated toward defensive exposures, with telecoms, utilities and infrastructure attracting inflows while financials and industrials saw the largest outflows. Rates positioning rema