SpaceX（SPCX.O）：2026年第三季度料将是多年催化剂丰富周期中的又一个强劲季度

We are previewing SPCX's 3Q26 EPS result. Directionally similar to 2Q26 results, we expect a 3Q26 beat largely driven by continued momentum in the company's AI segment further supported by strong performance in its Connectivity segment. In this preview, we make slight adjustments to our model, discuss recent developments impacting each key segment and offer perspective on points of discussion for the company's earnings call. We maintain our $200 price target, which is a heavily discounted version of the $900+/share that we believe can ultimately be achieved as SPCX's vision through the end of the decade plays out. We forecast 3Q26 Connectivity revenue growth of ~59% yoy to $4.9B and EBITDA growth of ~47% yoy to $2.8B. The milestone we are most focused on in launch remains the second stage 'chopstick' test, which we expect to be demonstrated by year-end, most likely on Flight 15. Flight 15 could be a major price target revision event. If SPCX succeeds in demonstrating key technological