US residential roofing: Near and medium-term supply demand challenges

We update our US residential roofing supply/demand tracker following 3Q volume and price/cost data. 3Q ARMA shipments fell 13% YoY (vs. flat in 2Q), pointing to a weaker-than-expected storm season and continued softness in both new construction and renovation, while elevated channel inventories may cap near-term upside. Roofing and siding pricing rose c.3% YoY in September (vs. c.4% in August), while asphalt costs are up c.20% YoY, leaving industry margins negatively skewed. We cut 2026/2027/2028E demand volume growth to -4%/+5%/+3% (prior +2%/+4%/+2%), with 2027 growth driven solely by normalised weather. On supply, Malarkey's Franklin plant is now targeted for 2027 and IKO announced an expansion at Sumas, implying less supply in 2026 and more in 2028;