瑞银全球研究发布矿业行业演示报告《铜时代》,覆盖全球基本金属、贵金属及大宗商品。价格预测方面,预计铜2026E均价13,272美元/吨,2027、2028年分别升至13,779和14,330美元/吨,长期实际价12,125美元/吨;黄金2026E为4,675美元/盎司,2027年4,800美元/盎司后回落;铁矿石2026E约102美元/吨,动力煤137美元/吨,焦煤237美元/吨。需求端中国主导铁矿石、铜、铝、镍、煤炭等品种的全球需求,建筑与电力基础设施为铜消费主力。估值方面,多元化矿企2027E平均EV/EBITDA为6.9倍,铜矿企业9.6倍、股息率2.6%,黄金企业6.5倍,特许权(Streaming)企业16.6倍;现货价下多数标的估值低于2年平均。
UBS Global Research published a mining sector presentation, "The Copper Age", covering global base metals, precious metals and bulk commodities. UBS forecasts copper at US$13,272/t in 2026E, rising to US$13,779/t in 2027 and US$14,330/t in 2028, with a long-term real price of US$12,125/t; gold at US$4,675/oz in 2026E and US$4,800/oz in 2027 before declining, long-term real US$3,250/oz; iron ore at about US$102/t, thermal coal US$137/t and hard coking coal US$237/t in 2026E. China dominates global demand for iron ore, copper, aluminium, nickel and coal, with construction and electrical infrastructure the largest copper end-use sectors. On valuation, diversified miners trade at an average 2027E EV/EBITDA of 6.9x, copper miners 9.6x with a 2.6% dividend yield, gold miners 6.5x and streaming companies 16.6x, with most names trading below their 2-year average EV/EBITDA at spot prices. UBS rates Freeport, Anglo American, First Quantum, KGHM, Hudbay, Capstone, Newmont, Barrick, Kinross and Fr