Global Economic Briefing: The Global 360

Higher energy prices continue to ripple through the global economy, but economic activity remains resilient, supported by the AI-led investment cycle and firmer-than-expected activity across several regions. The inflation picture has become more complex as signs of energy pass-through into core measures begin to emerge, with September US CPI surprising to the upside. We expect the Fed to hold in October and hike again in December and March 2027, taking the target range to 4.25-4.50%, with US GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The ECB is expected to deliver another 25bp hike in December to a 2.75% deposit rate, with euro area growth of 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, and we expect the BoJ to raise rates again in December. In China, resilient exports and faster fiscal deployment have returned growth to target, reducing the urgency for further stimulus even as household deleveraging and weak private demand persist.