德意志银行欧洲通胀图表手册指出，欧元区9月整体HICP同比升至3.8%（前值3.25%），核心HICP升至2.5%（前值2.4%），能源通胀由14.3%升至18.9%，主因运输燃料回升，天然气通胀亦加快至11%。报告预计四季度整体HICP将升至约4%，能源HICP维持在19%—20%，因布伦特原油仍在100美元/桶以上、天然气价格创88欧元/兆瓦时新高；多国延长燃油税削减仅能压低10—15个基点。核心层面变化有限：服务通胀升至3.2%主要来自套餐旅游、住宿和机票的季节性反弹，商品通胀因西班牙服装价格意外下跌而回落至1.1%，IT设备价格升至3.6%的历史高位。高能源密集指数、通胀冲击动量指数及国内通胀指标显示传导仍受抑，但家庭中长期通胀预期上升约30个基点，第二轮效应风险值得关注。基准情形预计欧央行12月再加息25个基点至2.75%，2027年升向3%的风险偏大。
Headline HICP is likely to rise to 4% YoY in Q4-26 as commodity prices remain under upward pressure. Energy inflation drove the rise in headline HICP in September, picking up to 19% YoY from 14% in August, largely reflecting a renewed rise in fuels, while gas inflation accelerated to 11% YoY. Crude is holding above USD100/bbl and gas hit fresh highs of EUR88/MWh, leaving both closer to the ECB's adverse scenario than the baseline. Several governments have extended fuel tax cuts, which we estimate could reduce headline inflation by 10-15bps in October, but we still expect energy HICP to remain around 19-20% in Q4-26. Little appears to be changing at an underlying level: the increase in services (3.2% from 3.0%) and core HICP (2.5% from 2.4%) was driven entirely by seasonal components, with package holidays, accommodation and airfares reversing August declines. The decline in goods (1.1%) was explained by an unexpected drop in clothing, largely driven by Spain, while durables inflation p