Short-cycle tracker: PMIs still solidly above 50 but the margin squeeze is back

In October, manufacturing PMIs stayed in expansionary territory in all three regions but were down slightly m/m, with the US at 54.9 (from 55.9), Europe at 52.7 (from 52.9) and China at 52.0 (from 52.1). Four takeaways: new orders decelerated sequentially in all three regions while staying in expansion (US 53.2 lowest since March); price and cost pressures accelerated in both Europe and the US, reaching their most severe since May; US supplier delivery times hit their highest since August 2022 at 60.2 on geopolitics-driven supply chain challenges and strong AI-related demand; restocking supported activity across all three regions, perhaps driven by customers pre-buying ahead of expected price increases. European demand looks resilient, with new orders at 51.8, still the third highest in four years, but part of this reflects restocking (stock of purchases minus stock of finished goods at +0.9), which is not a durable growth driver. The German PMI rose m/m to 54.2 while France fell into