Charter Communications (CHTR): Patiently Waiting, Resume

Following the close of the CHTR/Cox and concurrent Liberty transactions, Morgan Stanley reinstates coverage of the new Charter ("CHTR NewCo") with an Equal-weight rating and a $150 price target, implying ~5x forward EV/EBITDA on a pro forma basis and a relatively balanced risk/reward skew. While NewCo now eclipses Comcast in passings and carries ~$1bn each of opex and capex synergies, the combined business remains broadly ex-growth, facing persistent broadband volume and pricing headwinds, intensifying FWA and fiber competition, and emerging satellite (Starlink) risk that have driven the stock's multi-year de-rating. Cox adds mobile penetration whitespace (~10x gap vs. Charter) and B2B upside, though standalone financial contribution appears modest. Management lowered its leverage target to 3.5x from ~3.9x, pausing buybacks in 3Q with repurchases expected to resume in 4Q, and NewCo is expected to enter a capex holiday beginning in 2028, driving an FCF inflection.