GSK PLC 3Q’26 Preview: Sales 1% below, Core EPS ahead due to lower SG&A, 2026 guidance expected to leave Consensus forecasts unchanged

J.P. Morgan previews GSK PLC's 3Q 2026 results. We forecast 3Q revenue of £8,839m, up 4% LC, c. 1% below BBG Consensus, largely due to our weaker HIV forecast (2% below) and slightly weaker Vaccines forecast (c. 1% below), with General Medicines in line. For new launches, we forecast Exdensur sales of £34m (24%/£11m below Consensus) and Blenrep sales of £46m (5%/£3m below Consensus). On Core EPS, our forecast of 52.1p, a 4% LC decline, is 3.5% ahead of BBG Consensus (c. 1% ahead of post-2Q Company Consensus at 51.7p), largely driven by strong cost control in SG&A, which we forecast 6% below Consensus, more than offsetting our 2% higher R&D forecast (up 17.5% LC to £1,812m) and weaker topline. For 2026, we expect GSK to continue guiding towards the upper half of the ranges for Sales and Core EBIT and the lower end of the Core EPS range, at 5% LC Sales growth, 9% LC Core EBIT growth and 7% LC Core EPS growth, broadly underpinning Consensus and implying modest c. 1% cuts to Consensus Core