British American Tobacco (BATS.L): Key highlights from 2026 CMD - Horizon 2030

We attended BATS 2026 CMD in Winston-Salem, N. Carolina, where management detailed its Horizon 2030 strategy, built on three pillars: Quality Growth, Sustainable Future, and Dynamic Business. The key highlights of the event were the total nicotine market view (they expect to grow 4% pa globally to 2030E, and regional details given), showcasing of New Categories' innovation and growth potential (especially modern oral which they expect to reach £4.3bn in revenues by 2030E) and improving economics for these categories. BAT reiterated mid-term financial targets for 3-5% const. currency revenue growth, 4-6% adj. profit from operations growth, and 5-8% adj. EPS growth (profit metrics adjusted for Canada). By segment they expect 1-2% combustibles growth, and mid-teens growth in New Categories, with Modern Oral the key growth driver (looking for ~£4.3bn MO revenues by 2030E). The company expects a Contribution margin of >30% within New Categories by 2030, as well as £2bn productivity savings