Global Macro Outlook and Strategy: Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets

This report sets out J.P. Morgan's 2026 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy across global rates, commodities, currencies and emerging markets. In the US, the Fed is expected to hike again in December, with firming real growth and gradual disinflation allowing patience in the interim; Treasury yields are seen rising into year-end and staying around those levels into 1H27. The front end no longer screens cheap after adjusting for growth expectations and Fed rhetoric, but the curve looks too flat, so tactical 10s/30s steepeners are added, a trade that also pays if Treasury gives no sign of cutting long-end supply. European yields have stabilised with curves flattening after September's sell-off, and the team stays cautious on European duration. Persistence of US exceptionalism keeps the bullish USD bias intact, expressed through options with carry and procyclical exposure retained;