Zijin Gold International (2259.HK): 3Q26 Missed on Volume

9M26 NP grew 123% YoY to US$2bn. 3Q26 NP is implied at US$564mn, lower than US$643mn in 2Q26, and our expectation. 9M26 gold output grew 28% to 41t, ~69% of ZGI's 2026 target of 59.2t. 3Q26 output is implied at 13.7t, slightly lower QoQ. Management attributed the lower gold output in 3Q to temporary factors including equipment maintenance and changes in geological conditions, and will try to catch up in 4Q. ZGI continued to advance upgrades and equipment improvement at Norton, Aurora, Zeravshan and RG projects to prepare for volume release in 4Q26 and 2027. AISC was US$1,649/oz in 9M26, vs. US$1,678/oz in 1H26; we think the sequential decline mainly resulted from lower gold price. We use a base-case DCF with WACC of 8.0% and maintain Overweight with a HK$189 price target (27% upside vs HK$148.40 close on Oct 16, 2026); industry view Attractive.