First Take: 3Q26 results missed on volume

Zijin Gold reported 3Q26 NPAT of US$564mn (-12% QoQ; +47% YoY), a miss, taking 9M26 attributable profit to US$2bn, tracking 67% of JPMe/BBGe FY26 consensus. We believe the miss mainly reflects a lower-than-expected 3Q26 production ramp (9M26 production tracking ~69% of the FY26 target), while lower QoQ gold prices also weighed on earnings. Costs were the key positive, with 9M26 AISC improving to US$1,649/oz from US$1,678/oz in 1H26. 3Q26 mined-gold production came in at 13.7t (-1% QoQ; +5% YoY), attributed to equipment maintenance and changes in geological conditions; the implied 18.2t required in 4Q26 to meet FY26 guidance makes the near-term ramp demanding. Given production has missed market expectations for two consecutive quarters, we expect the stock to be under near-term pressure and see downside risk to consensus; however, we continue to view gold prices as the key share-price driver and maintain OW with a Dec-27 price target of HK$165.