花旗预计美联储今日加息25个基点，主要因为近期能源价格上涨以及核心CPI环比0.3%（市场预期0.2%），且市场已定价22个基点，维持利率不变将等同政策宽松，与主席沃什8月底在杰克逊霍尔的表态不符。但报告认为缺乏强劲的经济理由支持加息：若剔除手机服务资费一次性上涨10个基点，核心CPI环比仅0.19%；核心PCE通胀偏高，但其他核心通胀指标仅略高于目标且今年有所放缓，核心CPI同比已降至2.4%，仅比疫情前视为物价稳定水平高0.1个基点。经济并未出现"过热"迹象，今年增速预计约2%，接近潜在增速，失业率稳定在4.1%，工资增速已放缓至与2%通胀历史相符的水平，实际收入增长近一年接近零。加息预期推高长期收益率和按揭利率，将拖累本已疲弱的房地产。基准情形下，本次加息更多是释放鹰派信号，而非实质性改变经济走势；预计10月和12月按兵不动，2027年年中恢复降息。
We expect a 25bp rate hike today. But we do not see a strong economic rationale for higher policy rates given the trend lower in core inflation and lack of "overheating" in the broad economy. In our base case the hike is "dovish" with "dots" and Chair Warsh's comments pointing more toward a modest upward calibration than a significant hiking cycle. We project policy rates to remain on hold in October and December and for the Fed to resume rate cuts in mid-2027. The recent rise in energy prices and 0.3%MoM core CPI reading when a 0.2%MoM reading was expected will likely be enough for the Fed to hike rates by 25bp today. With 22bp priced-in, a decision to hold rates would result in an easing of policy, which could be seen as inconsistent with Chair Warsh's late August statements at Jackson Hole. But we do not see a strong economic rationale for higher policy rates. Core CPI would have registered 0.19%MoM if not for a one-time 10bp boost from rising cellphone service plan prices. Core PCE