本报告为摩根大通亚洲宏观数据观察。中国三季度GDP同比增长4.5%，超出预期，我们将2026年增速预测上调至4.6%；但复苏仍由生产端驱动，9月工业增加值同比增长5.5%，社会消费品零售总额仅增1.1%，固定资产投资下降7.2%。房地产仍是内需的主要拖累，9月住宅销售同比下降21.3%、新开工下降26.1%，100个基点首套房贷补贴带来的缓解有限。政策侧重稳定而非转向居民需求，加快债券发行与新增地方债额度支撑投资；央行在金融街论坛将DR001明确为操作目标，并可能转向隔夜操作框架，属框架改革而非降息。亚洲紧缩周期扩散：菲律宾央行加息50个基点至5.50%，韩国、印尼按兵不动但预计将重启加息，印度央行12月或加息25个基点，日本央行与泰国央行下周预计维持利率不变。
China: Stronger-than-expected 3Q GDP growth of 4.5%oya prompted us to raise our 2026 forecast to 4.6%y/y. The rebound remains production-led: September industrial production rose 5.5%oya, but retail sales grew just 1.1% and fixed investment fell 7.2%. Resilient exports and fiscal catch-up should sustain momentum into 1Q27, with growth of 5.3%q/q saar in 4Q26 and 4.8% in 1Q27. Housing remains a main drag on domestic demand: September residential sales fell 21.3%oya and starts 26.1%, and the 100bp first-home mortgage subsidy offers limited relief. Policy reinforces stabilization, not a household-demand pivot; at the October 19 Financial Street Forum, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng identified DR001 as the effective operating target and outlined a possible shift to overnight operations, a framework reform rather than a rate cut. Asia: 50 shades of tightening — the BSP hiked 50bps to 5.50%, while the Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia held but are expected to resume hiking;