本报告系统梳理代理式AI(Agentic AI)策略框架,覆盖电商、在线旅游、共享出行等下游领域,并测算Meta的Muse代理潜在空间。报告指出约30万亿美元消费者支出将通过代理式产品数字化,构成核心可寻址市场。Meta的Muse获快速采用(连续9天位列下载榜前五),依托FB/IG等一方数据实现个性化交互;测算显示,若Muse达1亿用户、日均5次查询、10%商业化率、有效CPC为谷歌搜索的20%,可带来约13亿美元年收入与约0.35美元EPS(约1%的2028年EPS上行),敏感性分析显示最高可贡献15%以上EPS上修。报告认为META、AAPL、AMZN、EBAY、SHOP定位最优,GOOGL需持续推出代理式产品以防份额与流量流失,在线旅游(BKNG/ABNB/EXPE)似被超卖,CHWY及共享出行行业风险较高。
We detail our agentic playbook/frameworks across leading platforms and downstream players (e-com, travel, gig). META/AAPL/AMZN/EBAY/SHOP are among the cleanest winners. We also size META Muse and explain why GOOGL needs to ship products to avoid disruption, why OTAs seem oversold, and why CHWY and the rideshare industry are more at risk. The agentic debate is back: the launch of Meta's Muse agent and Instinct's rise in popularity have pushed it to the forefront, with "agentic battleground" names such as the online travel agencies falling 6%-12% over the past ~2 weeks. We think Muse is an important development because it is garnering adoption (9 straight days in the top 5 downloaded apps), driving personalized and potentially monetizable interactions using FB/IG and other datasets, integrating mobile web browsing and transactions, and offering high utility for free with 100mn free weekly tokens. We see roughly $30trln of consumer spend to be digitized through agentic offerings. Leading