Americas Consumer Staples: Key takeaways from IR catch-ups and our thoughts ahead of CQ3 results

We recently caught up with the IR teams of many Staples companies including CCEP, CELH, CHD, CL, CLX, COCO, COTY, EL, ELF, KDP, KMB, KO, MNST, MO, MUSA, PEP, PG, PM, PRMB, STZ, TAP and YSWY ahead of their calendar Q3 earnings. We broadly expect most companies to report inline quarters, but expect a few upside surprises from COCO, EL, ELF, MNST, MO, PG & PM (especially given subdued expectations), but expect CLX, KMB & SAM to surprise to the downside. Overall, we expect most companies to take a cautious approach towards the rest of CY26 (especially on GMs) and the setup into CY27 as they contemplate a challenging operating environment. However, we believe CHD, ELF, MO & PM could narrow/raise their full year guidance ranges, but believe SAM & KMB could lower their full year ranges. Heading into CQ3 results, we reiterate our Buy ratings on PM, MNST, EL, ELF & CHD, and our Sell ratings on CLX & SAM.