野村发布亿纬锂能（300014.SZ）2026年三季度业绩点评。3Q26净利润19.4亿元，同比增60%、环比增5%，略高于其预增区间（49%-69%）中值；营收277亿元，同比增65%、环比增11%，与动力及储能电池合计出货53GWh基本匹配，电池价格环比基本稳定。毛利率14.7%，同比提升1.0个百分点、环比提升0.2个百分点，主因海外市场贡献提升带来客户结构优化，部分抵消行业增量税负压力。管理层上调2027年出货目标，动力电池约同比翻倍、储能电池约增50%，驱动力包括宝马等海外车企大圆柱电池需求、商用车电池出货翻倍及Fluence 16GWh等海外储能订单；合肥、荆门、成都、惠州扩产推进，匈牙利工厂预计2H27投产。上调2027-28年盈利预测6%-8%，维持买入评级，目标价由100元下调至76元（对应2027年EPS 4.92元的15.4倍），隐含71%上行空间。
Nomura's 3Q26 review of EVE Energy (300014.SZ). 3Q26 earnings rose 60% y-y or 5% q-q to CNY1.94bn, slightly above the mid-point of its positive profit alert (49-69% y-y). Revenue grew 65% y-y or 11% q-q to CNY27.7bn, largely in line with combined EV and ESS battery shipments of 53GW, indicating sequentially stable battery prices. GPM expanded 1.0pp y-y or 0.2pp q-q to 14.7%, attributable to improved customer mix with more overseas contribution, offsetting sector headwinds from incremental tax burden. Management raised its 2027E shipment target, with ~100% y-y growth for EV batteries and ~50% y-y for ESS batteries, driven by robust large cylindrical battery demand from overseas OEMs such as BMW, a doubling of commercial EV battery shipments, and growing overseas ESS demand including a 16GWh order from Fluence for 2027E. Capacity expansion continues in Hefei, Jingmen, Chengdu and Huizhou, and the Hungary plant is expected to start production in 2H27E. Nomura raises 2027-28F earnings by 6