本期欧洲股票策略周报聚焦质量因子。全球质量因子重新走强，美国自9月初上涨10%，而标普500距历史高点不足1%；欧洲轮动更温和，欧洲质量多空组合同期仅涨约5%，MSCI欧洲质量指数仍落后历史趋势。报告指出，疫情以来地缘分化、通胀与利率上升，以及防务、能源和AI资本开支，使价值股领先；近期质量反弹更多源于低质量公司走弱，而非质量龙头全面重估。信用利差走阔、欧元较夏季高点下跌4%，凸显防御性强且海外收入占比高的欧洲质量股优势。STOXX 600每股收益2026年下半年预计增长逾20%，但2027年增速将由约20%放缓至8%，美国由逾30%降至约15%，盈利动能放缓通常利好质量组合。低利润率、能源密集的汽车、化工及部分工业股面临成本传导滞后压力。MSCI欧洲质量指数市盈率17.4倍，较市场溢价约25%，接近十年区间底部。建议精选资产负债表稳健、自由现金流强、商业模式抗扰动的公司。
Global Quality is gaining ground, especially in the US, where the Quality factor has risen 10% since the start of September even as the S&P 500 remains within 1% of its all-time high. In Europe, the rotation is more modest: the European Quality Pair is up only about 5% over the same period, and MSCI Europe Quality continues to lag its historical trend. Post-GFC, high-quality European companies benefited from weak regional growth, but since COVID, geopolitical fragmentation, higher inflation and rates, and rising investment in defence, energy and AI have redirected growth toward capital-intensive industries, allowing Value sectors to lead. Much of the recent recovery has been driven by weakness in lower-quality companies rather than a broad re-rating of Quality leaders. Wider credit spreads, higher sovereign spreads and euro weakness (down 4% versus the dollar since its summer peak) should favour defensive, internationally exposed European Quality. Earnings growth remains strong but is