本周美国国债收益率无视强劲通胀与健康劳动力数据，因全球股市估值担忧而明显下行：2年、5年、10年和30年期收益率分别下降11、17、19和20个基点，10年期周内波动区间达30个基点，美国国债表现优于其他发达市场。报告认为，长端收益率与互换利差的变化也可能反映市场对债务管理策略调整的预期，且仓位可能比客户调查显示的更干净。前端在计入美联储表态和增长预期后略显便宜，但曲线相对滞后，10s/30s在当前位置约低3个基点。建议增配10s/30s陡峭化交易，作为前端久期敞口的低贝塔替代并保留相对价值保护，同时维持10s/20s/30s蝶式做空和2.375% 2051/5.0% 2056曲线平坦化交易。主动管理核心债券基金9月回吐此前约40个基点的超额收益，波动率是近期回报最主要驱动因素。
Treasury yields ignored strong inflation and labor-market data this week, falling amid concerns about global equity valuations. The 2-, 5-, 10- and 30-year yields declined 11bp, 17bp, 19bp and 20bp, respectively, and Treasuries outperformed DM peers. The move may also reflect cleaner positioning and heightened expectations of a shift in debt-management strategy. After accounting for Fed rhetoric and growth expectations, the front end appears modestly cheap, while the curve has lagged; 10s/30s looks about 3bp flat given the level of rates. We like adding 10s/30s steepeners as a tactical low-beta proxy for long exposure, with relative-value protection if the bearish impulse resumes, and maintain 10s/20s/30s belly-cheapening butterflies and 2.375% May-51/5.0% May-56 curve flatteners. Actively managed core bond funds gave back roughly 40bp of outperformance through September, with volatility the most statistically significant driver of recent returns.