亚洲稻米出口价格持续上涨。2026年10月，泰国和越南5%破碎白米出口价格同比涨幅分别升至36.9%和11.4%，而1月分别为-14.6%和-21.6%；印度25%破碎长粒米价格亦上涨，但幅度较小。供给端，降雨偏少使印度夏季稻米播种面积同比减少3.5%；厄尔尼诺可能持续增强至2027年一季度，干旱将增加泰国水库补水和第二季稻米生产难度。同时，菲律宾扩大稻米进口以弥补本地缺口，带动需求回升。报告指出，稻米是亚洲主粮，2025/26年度全球仅11.3%的产量进入贸易，国内减产可能产生区域溢出效应；菲律宾风险最高，其CPI篮子中稻米权重达8.9%，且为亚洲最大稻米净进口国。若米价继续上涨，各国可能实施出口限制以抑制国内通胀，从而进一步收紧全球供应并放大区域食品价格压力。
Asian rice export prices are rising. In October 2026, Thai and Vietnamese 5% broken white rice export price inflation rose sharply to 36.9% y-o-y and 11.4%, respectively, from -14.6% and -21.6% in January. India's 25% broken white long grain prices also rose, albeit to a lesser extent. On the supply side, below-normal rainfall reduced summer rice sowing in India by 3.5% y-o-y. With El Niño likely to strengthen through Q1 2027, drought conditions will likely make it difficult to refill water reservoirs, constraining second-crop rice production in Thailand. Meanwhile, the Philippines has scaled up rice imports to offset local shortfalls, driving a pickup in demand. Rice prices warrant close monitoring, as rice is a staple food in Asia and only 11.3% of global production was traded in 2025/26, so domestic shortfalls may have regional spillovers. The Philippines is most exposed, with the highest share of rice in its CPI basket (8.9%) and as Asia's biggest net rice importer. Trade protectio