摩根士丹利发布全球天然气与LNG研究：JKM（亚洲LNG）价格近期上涨已触及此前25美元/百万英热单位预测。因库存偏低且中东供应持续损失，报告将4Q26 JKM预测由25美元上调至27.50美元，1Q27由20美元上调至21.50美元，主要因卡塔尔复产慢于预期。自3月以来新增产能与更高利用率仅弥补约60%的中东损失供应，缺口由全球需求下滑（除欧洲外同比-4%）及欧盟库存填补。欧盟储气库仅约70%满，低于去年的82%和10年均值87%，接近历史低位。报告认为冬季价格仍有上行风险，但预计2027年价格回落将快于期货曲线，因年底前有超3000万吨/年非中东产能投产，卡塔尔北方气田扩产或进一步增加供应。报告上调美国出口商盈利预测：Cheniere 2026年EBITDA升至86亿美元，Venture Global升至94亿美元；
Low Inventories, limited cushion. JKM (Asia LNG) prices have rallied further over the past month, consistent with our constructive outlook. New capacity and higher utilization have offset ~60% of lost Middle East supply since March, with weaker global demand (-4% y/y ex Europe) and EU storage bridging the gap – ultimately leaving the market with a large inventory deficit heading into winter. While stronger September injections have helped on the margin, EU storage remains near seasonal record lows at ~70% full, versus 82% last year and a 10-year average of 87%. With JKM prices now at our prior $25 forecast, we raise our 4Q outlook further, largely reflecting a slower Qatar restart (previous estimates reflected a ramp starting in Sept). While upside price risks linger into winter, we do also see a faster decline than the futures curve implies in 2027. >30 mtpa of non-Middle East capacity is slated to start up by the end of next year, and any contribution from Qatar's North Field expansi