Medline Inc. (MDLN): Loading the Trucks: Reviewing the Puts and Takes Into 2H26 Earnings and 2027

J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating on Medline (MDLN). The note reviews the key puts and takes heading into 2H26 earnings and 2027. About half of the roughly $340M of 2026 non-recurring costs, or approximately $170M, is expected to be transitory and excluded from run-rate EBITDA exiting 2026, while the remaining ~$170M of permanent costs, higher polyethylene and other input costs, and Middle East-related pressures may weigh more on 2027. Medline has signed about $650M of prime vendor agreements year-to-date in 2026 versus $2.4B in 2025, but we see a path to more than $1B of annual signings and continued share gains. J.P. Morgan forecasts 2026 and 2027 revenue of $31.2B and $33.6B, respectively, with 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3.30-3.40B, and believes near-term disruption does not impair the long-term value proposition.