摩根士丹利发布10月全球化工行业网络研讨会纪要，由美国化工研究主管Vincent Andrews与中国化工分析师Kaylee Xu分享核心观点：(1)中国化工品出口8月环比下降但同比仍呈上行趋势，开工率环比基本稳定，乙烯裂解装置开工率约80%（低于2月约85%），乙烯价格因中东供应扰动近期反弹，MDI等部分下游价差因原料成本上升承压，国内库存处于同比低位；(2)农业方面厄尔尼诺尚未造成明显负面冲击，巴西二季大豆种植提前，美国团队看好Vylor与Corteva，对氮肥（CF Industries/雅拉）偏谨慎，因中国出口增加、天然气价格偏高及中东冲突可能缓解；(3)蛋氨酸价格或因供给大增进一步承压，蓝星安迪苏15万吨与新人凌盛20万吨新产能投产将令全球产能提升约14%，远超约3%的需求年增速，据此近期下调赢创FY27盈利预测；
Post our October Global Chemicals Webcast, joined by Vincent Andrews (US Head of Chemicals) and Kaylee Xu (China Chemicals Analyst), we highlight key views and takeaways: (1) China chemicals exports still on the rise, albeit gradually. China chemical operating rates are trending largely stable MoM, with Ethylene cracker rates averaging around ~80% (yet still below February levels of ~85%), although Ethylene prices have recently enjoyed a re-run upwards given ongoing disruption in the Middle East, while more downstream some spreads have seen pressure (including MDI) on higher feedstock costs. Domestic inventory levels remain at lower YoY levels, with Chinese exports lower MoM in August but still trending higher YoY, and the China team expects the rising export trend to continue. (2) Agriculture - Corteva/Vylor (+), Nutrien (+) and More Cautious Nitrogen (CF/YAR -). A key theme is El Niño, which so far has not shown up in a materially negative way, with Brazil Safrinha soy plantings runn