伯恩斯坦欧洲化工团队走访北美四大时区并与投资者交流,同时参加Linde亚利桑那投资者活动及Air Liquide资本市场日后的纽约卖方会议,汇总七点反馈:1)"何时买入Linde"是最高频话题,长期逻辑清晰,但短期回升至8%-12%调整后EPS增速(剔除宏观与汇率)的路径不明朗,催化剂包括Lincare处置方案或项目中标;2)Air Liquide资本市场日重申目标,若达成长期股价有望向好,投资者期待其更努力缩小与Linde的利润率与增长差距,焦点转向执行力;3)对Air Products兴趣升温,其电子业务敞口更大、估值较同业更便宜,但NEOM及表现不佳项目仍令投资者担忧;4)农业基本面稳健,投资者对CF Industries在霍尔木兹海峡可能重开前持仓意愿有限,但有意逢低买入,巴斯夫农业解决方案IPO亦受关注;5)涂料估值已偏低,随利率与原材料成本上升,PPG与阿克苏诺贝尔受关注;
We spent the last two weeks in North America, meeting with investors across all four major time zones, as well as attending the Linde event in Arizona and Air Liquide's New York sell side meeting post CMD. Our seven-part summary of feedback is as follows: 1) "When do I buy Linde?" - the most popular name, with a relatively clear long-term story but a less clear short-term path back to 8-12% Adj. EPS growth ex-macro ex-FX; catalysts include a Lincare solution or project wins. 2) Air Liquide - potential to go BEYOND, with the story now becoming about execution. 3) Interest in Air Products is picking up momentum on greater electronics exposure and a cheaper valuation versus peers, though NEOM continues to concern investors. 4) Ag: sound fundamentals versus tactical trading, with limited willingness to own CF Industries ahead of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but interest in buying the expected dip. 5) Coatings - getting too cheap, with rising interest in PPG and Akzo. 6) Po