减重降糖（代谢病）机遇持续放量

Revenue and EPS beat on Zepbound/Mounjaro strength, and LLY raised 2026 guidance again ($5.5bn at the midpoint), following a $2.5bn raise with 2Q; margins were strong again, in line with our thesis. New revenue guidance is $91-92bn (prev. $85-87bn), with EPS guidance including IPR&D of $35.00-36.00 and performance margin guidance raised to 52.0%-52.5% (prev. 49.0%-50.5%). Combined WW Mounjaro plus Zepbound sales in 3Q were $16.1bn, above MS/consensus of $15.4bn/$15.1bn; Mounjaro sales of $10.7bn (~$5.0bn US/$5.7bn ROW) and Zepbound sales of $5.4bn. US incretin TRx share rose to 63% from ~61% in 2Q26 as the market grew 32% y/y, while ROW share rose to 58.4% from 55%. Over 500k patients are accessing LLY obesity medicines via the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program, with 80% new incretin starts. Foundayo sales of $184mn came in below expectations and we lower 2026/2027 estimates by ~$700mn/$600mn, but we raise Mounjaro OUS estimates by ~$700mn-$4bn over 2027-2030. We raise our price target to