Guangdong Songfa - A: Positive newsflow reinforces OW: Maersk containership order, LNG carrier plans and new earnings streams

Positive newsflow last week reinforces our OW on Songfa: (1) Maersk announced 26 18,600-TEU LNG dual-fuel containerships on 18 Sep, with market sources attributing 20 firm vessels plus 12 options to Songfa/Hengli; (2) on 17 Sep, Songfa/Hengli was reported to be preparing two self-built LNG carriers while negotiating with Middle Eastern customers; and (3) on 14 Sep, Songfa/Hengli installed the world's largest completed C-type bi-lobe LNG/ammonia fuel tank. Together, these developments validate three pillars of our positive view: longer workload visibility, higher-value vessel mix and earnings diversification. The Maersk series extends large-vessel slot visibility from 2028 into 2029-30 at market pricing as Phase 4 ramps. The firm tranche has an indicative value of approximately US$3.9bn based on an estimated pricing of US$193-195mn per vessel, in line with prevailing market levels and suggesting no discount. LNG carriers offer potential gross margins of approximately 35%, above large co